Slate-IQ — Week 1, Sun 9/13 1PM Slate

This Week's Lineups

One cash build and three GPP builds — full player-by-player reasoning, the complete roster, and the model's own confidence grade on every pick.

Week 1 · Cash GPP #1 · Steelers-Falcons Stack GPP #2 · Bengals-Buccaneers Shootout GPP #3 · The Colts Stack
Cash Game Build

Week 1 Cash Lineup for DraftKings Sun 9/13 1 PM Slate

A cash-game build for the Week 1 Sunday 1 PM slate, refreshed against the latest optimizer solve — six CORE-grade plays give this the deepest floor of any Cash lineup posted this season.

$49,400Salary Used
162.14Proj. Total
6 / 9CORE-Grade Spots

Definition

Cash is Lineup 1 in the Slate-IQ four-lineup structure — the highest-floor, most optimal build, and the one official cash lineup Slate-IQ enters every week. It gets 4 of the week's 15 $1 entries, all placed into 50/50s and Double-Ups, where roughly half the field cashes and everyone who does gets paid the same. The build skews heavily toward the model's highest-confidence tier (75–85% core): one primary QB, high-floor RBs and WRs, a safe TE, and a strong DST — no stacking, no ownership consideration, just the most efficient roster available. It's also the fixed benchmark every other lineup gets measured against each week.

Why This Lineup, Why Now

Cash games — 50/50s and double-ups, where roughly half the field cashes and everyone who does gets paid the same — reward a completely different mindset than tournaments. In a GPP (guaranteed prize pool, the big-field tournaments), you're chasing a ceiling and correlation is your friend. In cash, correlation doesn't help you; a high floor does. You don't need your quarterback and receiver to go off together — you need nine players who are individually unlikely to bust.

This week's refreshed build leans into that harder than the version it replaces: six of nine roster spots now carry the model's top CORE signal, up from five last time. Every player here needs to be a locked-in piece of his own offense, not competing with a teammate for touches or sitting behind a committee that could take his volume away.

The Lineup, Player by Player

QB — Jalen Hurts ($6,600, PHI vs. WAS)
Grade A, CORE signal, projected for 23.31 points — the top raw-points quarterback in the entire pool (1st) and 2nd in value behind only Daniel Jones. Philadelphia is favored by 5.5 in a 45.5-point game, for a 25.5 implied team total, the highest implied total on this roster. A CORE-tagged QB at this salary is a rare combination — best point projection at the position, priced below the top tier.

RB — Jonathan Taylor ($7,300, IND vs. BAL)
Grade A, CORE signal. The top-projected running back in the pool at 23.33 points — 1st in raw points, 3rd in value. Indianapolis is a 3.5-point underdog in a 48.5-point game, for an implied total of 22.5. The same “pay up for the guy who just gets the ball” pick as before — his role hasn't changed even though most of the roster around him has.

RB — Bucky Irving ($5,700, TB vs. CIN)
Grade A, CORE signal, projected for 18.22 points — 4th in raw points among running backs but 2nd in value, the mismatch that keeps him CORE-tagged at a price nearly $1,600 below Taylor's. Tampa Bay is a 3.5-point underdog in the slate's highest-total game (50.5), for a 23.5 implied team total — the best game environment of any running back rostered here.

WR — Chris Olave ($6,700, NO vs. DET)
Grade A, CORE signal, projected for 18.58 points — 3rd in raw points among receivers and 5th in value. New Orleans is a 7-point underdog in a 49.5-point game — the second-highest total on the slate — for a 21.25 implied team total. Big underdogs in high-total games tend to throw more, which fits a target-share-driven profile like his.

WR — Drake London ($6,500, ATL @ PIT)
The standout of the lineup again — 1st in both raw points and value among every receiver on the slate. The model projects 28.27 points — a full touchdown-plus ahead of the next-best receiver here — despite Atlanta being a 3.5-point underdog (19.5 implied total). His target share alone is projected to carry him regardless of how the game script plays out.

WR — Garrett Wilson ($5,800, NYJ @ TEN)
Grade A, CORE signal, projected for 16.88 points — 5th in raw points among wide receivers and 2nd in value. New York is a 1.5-point favorite in a lower 38.5-point game (18.5 implied total), the lowest team total rostered here, but the model still grades his role top-tier regardless of the scoreboard.

TE — Cade Otton ($3,700, TB vs. CIN)
Grade B, VALUE signal, projected for 14.16 points on the cheapest tight end salary that still clears the VALUE bar — 4th in raw points among tight ends and 1st in value, the best points-per-dollar at the position in the entire pool. Tampa Bay's 23.5 implied total (same CIN game as Irving) gives him one of the best matchups on the roster at a fraction of the salary of the top tight ends.

FLEX — Jauan Jennings ($4,300, MIN vs. GB)
Grade B, VALUE signal, projected for 12.18 points on a $4,300 salary — the cheapest player in this build. His value score ranks 3rd among all wide receivers in the pool despite ranking just 17th in raw points, the mismatch that makes him a VALUE play rather than a name the field is chasing. Minnesota is favored by 1.5 in a 45.5-point game, for a 23.5 implied total.

DST — Chicago Bears ($2,800, CHI vs. CAR)
Grade B, WATCH signal, projected for 7.21 points — 3rd among all defenses in raw points but priced $200 over the position's VALUE cutoff ($2,600), which keeps it a WATCH instead. Chicago is favored by 2.5 in a 47.5-point game, for a 25.0 implied total for their own offense — a solid environment, but this is the one spot on the roster without the model's full endorsement.

The Full Roster

PosPlayerSalaryMatchupVegas (Total/Spread)Implied TotalProj. DKGradeSignal
QBJalen Hurts$6,600PHI vs. WAS45.5 / -5.525.523.31ACORE
RBJonathan Taylor$7,300IND vs. BAL48.5 / +3.522.523.33ACORE
RBBucky Irving$5,700TB vs. CIN50.5 / +3.523.518.22ACORE
WRChris Olave$6,700NO vs. DET49.5 / +7.021.2518.58ACORE
WRDrake London$6,500ATL @ PIT42.5 / +3.519.528.27ACORE
WRGarrett Wilson$5,800NYJ @ TEN38.5 / +1.518.516.88ACORE
TECade Otton$3,700TB vs. CIN50.5 / +3.523.514.16BVALUE
FLEXJauan Jennings$4,300MIN vs. GB45.5 / -1.523.512.18BVALUE
DSTBears$2,800CHI vs. CAR47.5 / -2.525.07.21BWATCH
Total$49,400162.14

Spread is shown from each listed player's own team perspective (negative = favorite). Implied team total = (Game Total − Team Spread) ÷ 2. Home/away designations aren't part of the model's output, so “vs.” here just separates team from opponent — it isn't a claim about who's hosting. $600 of cap space is unused.

What the Numbers Tell Us

Six of nine roster spots — Hurts, Taylor, Irving, Olave, London, and Wilson — carry the model's top CORE signal, the highest CORE count of any Cash build this season so far and a clear upgrade over the previous version of this lineup, which carried five. That's exactly the kind of foundation a cash lineup wants: minimizing bust risk across as much of the roster as possible.

Only one spot sits in WATCH territory — the Bears defense, priced just $200 over the position's VALUE cutoff. That's not a red flag on its own; Chicago's own implied total (25.0) is solid, it's simply a spot without the model's full endorsement.

Worth a brief mention: Irving and Otton both come from the same TB @ CIN game, the highest-total matchup on the slate (50.5). That's incidental rather than a deliberate correlation play — cash doesn't reward stacking the way GPPs do — but it's two of nine spots leaning on one game playing out well.

DFS Translation

How to read Grade and Signal: Grade buckets a player's raw point projection into A/B/C tiers using position-specific point thresholds — it's salary-blind, purely “how many points is this player expected to score.” Signal layers Value (projected points per $1,000 of salary) on top of Grade to flag roster fit:

  • CORE — Grade A and Value at or above a position-specific bar. Build your lineup around this player.
  • VALUE — Salary at or below a position-specific ceiling and Value at or above a bar. A cheap, efficient pivot that frees up cap space.
  • WATCH — Neither bar was cleared. Not a red flag, just no strong edge either way.

The exact cutoffs differ by position — a WR needs fewer raw points than a QB to earn a Grade A, for example:

PositionGrade AGrade BCORE needsVALUE needs
QB≥ 20 pts≥ 16 ptsGrade A + Value ≥ 2.95Salary ≤ $6,500 + Value ≥ 2.3
RB≥ 18 pts≥ 12 ptsGrade A + Value ≥ 2.5Salary ≤ $5,800 + Value ≥ 2.3
WR≥ 16 pts≥ 11 ptsGrade A + Value ≥ 2.4Salary ≤ $5,200 + Value ≥ 2.2
TE≥ 15 pts≥ 10 ptsGrade A + Value ≥ 2.5Salary ≤ $3,700 + Value ≥ 2.5
DST≥ 7.5 pts≥ 5 ptsGrade A + Value ≥ 2.4Salary ≤ $2,600 + Value ≥ 2.2

Below the Grade B line at each position is a Grade C; missing both the CORE and VALUE bars is a WATCH.

For this build specifically:

CORE (safest floor)Jalen Hurts, Jonathan Taylor, Bucky Irving, Chris Olave, Drake London, Garrett Wilson
VALUE (good pts/$)Cade Otton, Jauan Jennings
WATCH (acceptable)Chicago Bears DST

Six CORE, two VALUE, one WATCH — the deepest CORE tilt of any Cash build posted this season, and a genuine upgrade over the five-CORE version this replaces.

The Slate-IQ Take

This is the strongest floor this Cash build has carried all season — six A-grade, CORE-signal players is a genuinely deep foundation, not just one or two standout names propping up a shakier supporting cast. If there's a place to pump the brakes slightly, it's the Bears defense: a solid game environment, but priced just above the position's VALUE cutoff, so it's riding on role and matchup rather than a clean model endorsement the way everything else here is.

Final Takeaway

Cash games reward not giving points away, and this build gives away fewer than almost any Cash lineup Slate-IQ has posted this season — six CORE-grade plays across six different positions. The Bears defense is the one true watch-list spot, and even that comes with a favorable game script behind it. Numbers don't lie, and this week they're telling a pretty clean story.

GPP #1 · Tournament Build

Week 1 GPP Lineup: Steelers-Falcons Game Stack

A tournament build still anchored in the Falcons-Steelers game, with a new, incidental Colts correlation piece added this week — six CORE-grade plays give it the most point-scoring depth of any build in this series.

$49,300Salary Used
161.48Proj. Total
6 / 9CORE-Grade Spots

Definition

Leverage is Lineup 3 in the Slate-IQ four-lineup structure — built around ownership discrepancies, where the field is likely wrong. It gets 4 of the week's 15 $1 entries, paired one-for-one with a Ceiling entry into Three-Entry Max GPPs — the stack-focused tournament format built around high-upside game correlation. Construction-wise this is 2–4 player changes from Cash, stronger game correlation than Balanced, and more ownership differentiation — leverage-driven substitutions rather than a straight upgrade.

Why This Lineup, Why Now

Same GPP logic as always: large-field tournaments pay out top-heavy, so this build chases correlation and leverage rather than a safe floor. The Falcons-Steelers stack that gives this lineup its name is still fully intact — Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts Sr. all come from that one 42.5-point game — but this week's solve added something new: Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, and Keenan Allen are all Indianapolis Colts pieces, giving this build a second, incidental three-player game correlation on top of the one it's named for. Daniel Jones and Keenan Allen are this build's two VALUE-tagged leverage pieces, priced outside the top of their respective position tiers — the same role profile this series always leans on.

The Lineup, Player by Player

QB — Daniel Jones ($5,400, IND vs. BAL)
Grade B, VALUE signal. His value score (3.548) is the single best of any quarterback in the pool, even though his raw-points rank is only 6th, projected for 19.16 points. Indianapolis is a 3.5-point underdog in a 48.5-point game, for a 22.5 implied team total. He anchors this build's newly-added Colts correlation alongside Taylor and Allen below.

RB — Bijan Robinson ($7,700, ATL vs. PIT)
Grade A, CORE signal, projected for 22.81 points — 2nd in raw points among running backs and 4th in value, so this isn't a name play riding reputation alone. Atlanta is a 3.5-point underdog in the same 42.5-point game as London and Pitts Sr. below, for a 19.5 implied team total — the second piece of this build's Falcons-Steelers stack.

RB — Jonathan Taylor ($7,300, IND vs. BAL)
Grade A, CORE signal. The top-projected running back in the pool at 23.33 points — 1st in raw points, 3rd in value. Indianapolis is a 3.5-point underdog in the same 48.5-point game as Jones and Allen — the second piece of this build's added Colts correlation.

WR — Drake London ($6,500, ATL vs. PIT)
The headline number in this lineup again: a 28.27-point projection, a full touchdown-plus ahead of the next-best receiver here, despite Atlanta being a 3.5-point underdog (19.5 implied total). One of three Falcons-Steelers pieces in this build — the stack the whole post is named for.

WR — Garrett Wilson ($5,800, NYJ vs. TEN)
Grade A, CORE signal, projected for 16.88 points — his value score (2.910) ranks 2nd among wide receivers even though his raw projection ranks only 5th. New York is a 1.5-point underdog in a lower-scoring 38.5-point game, for an 18.5 implied team total — the lowest team total rostered here, included for role rather than game environment.

WR — Keenan Allen ($4,700, IND vs. BAL)
Grade B, VALUE signal, projected for 13.31 points — 9th in raw points, 4th in value among receivers. Third and final piece of the Colts correlation, same 48.5-point game as Jones and Taylor.

TE — Tucker Kraft ($4,500, GB vs. MIN)
Grade A, CORE signal, projected for 15.09 points — 3rd in raw points and 2nd in value among tight ends. Green Bay is favored by 1.5 in a 45.5-point game, for a 22.0 implied team total — a standalone piece, not tied to either stack in this build.

FLEX — Kyle Pitts Sr. ($4,700, ATL vs. PIT)
Grade A, CORE signal, projected for 15.62 points — his value score (3.323) is 3rd-best of any tight end in the pool, ahead of his raw-points rank of 2nd. Third and final piece of the Falcons-Steelers stack, same 42.5-point game as Robinson and London.

DST — Miami Dolphins ($2,700, MIA vs. LV)
Grade B, WATCH signal, projected for 7.01 points — 5th among defenses in raw points but 1st in value, the best points-per-dollar of any defense in the pool despite the WATCH tag (Grade B falls short of the CORE bar). Miami is favored by 3.5 in a 40.5-point game, for an 18.5 implied total for their own offense.

The Full Roster

PosPlayerSalaryMatchupVegas (Total/Spread)Implied TotalProj. DKGradeSignal
QBDaniel Jones$5,400IND vs. BAL48.5 / +3.522.519.16BVALUE
RBBijan Robinson$7,700ATL vs. PIT42.5 / +3.519.522.81ACORE
RBJonathan Taylor$7,300IND vs. BAL48.5 / +3.522.523.33ACORE
WRDrake London$6,500ATL vs. PIT42.5 / +3.519.528.27ACORE
WRGarrett Wilson$5,800NYJ vs. TEN38.5 / +1.518.516.88ACORE
WRKeenan Allen$4,700IND vs. BAL48.5 / +3.522.513.31BVALUE
TETucker Kraft$4,500GB vs. MIN45.5 / +1.522.015.09ACORE
FLEXKyle Pitts Sr.$4,700ATL vs. PIT42.5 / +3.519.515.62ACORE
DSTDolphins$2,700MIA vs. LV40.5 / +3.518.57.01BWATCH
Total$49,300161.48

Spread is shown from each listed player's own team perspective (negative = favorite). Implied team total = (Game Total − Team Spread) ÷ 2. Home/away designations aren't part of the model's output, so “vs.” here just separates team from opponent — it isn't a claim about who's hosting. $700 of cap space is unused.

What the Numbers Tell Us

This build now carries two separate three-player game stacks — the Falcons-Steelers game (Robinson, London, and Pitts Sr.) and, new this week, Indianapolis's own game (Jones, Taylor, and Allen) — six of nine roster spots tied to just two matchups. That's a meaningfully more concentrated build than earlier versions of this lineup, and it cuts both ways: if both games play out the way Vegas expects, this lineup can separate fast; if either one goes quiet, a third of the roster goes with it.

London's 28.27 projection is still the standout number on the board, and it's worth repeating: Atlanta being a 3.5-point underdog doesn't hurt his case, since his target share isn't dependent on the Falcons winning outright.

DFS Translation

How to read Grade and Signal: Grade buckets a player's raw point projection into A/B/C tiers using position-specific point thresholds — it's salary-blind, purely “how many points is this player expected to score.” Signal layers Value (projected points per $1,000 of salary) on top of Grade to flag roster fit:

  • CORE — Grade A and Value at or above a position-specific bar. Build your lineup around this player.
  • VALUE — Salary at or below a position-specific ceiling and Value at or above a bar. A cheap, efficient pivot that frees up cap space.
  • WATCH — Neither bar was cleared. Not a red flag, just no strong edge either way.

The exact cutoffs differ by position — a WR needs fewer raw points than a QB to earn a Grade A, for example:

PositionGrade AGrade BCORE needsVALUE needs
QB≥ 20 pts≥ 16 ptsGrade A + Value ≥ 2.95Salary ≤ $6,500 + Value ≥ 2.3
RB≥ 18 pts≥ 12 ptsGrade A + Value ≥ 2.5Salary ≤ $5,800 + Value ≥ 2.3
WR≥ 16 pts≥ 11 ptsGrade A + Value ≥ 2.4Salary ≤ $5,200 + Value ≥ 2.2
TE≥ 15 pts≥ 10 ptsGrade A + Value ≥ 2.5Salary ≤ $3,700 + Value ≥ 2.5
DST≥ 7.5 pts≥ 5 ptsGrade A + Value ≥ 2.4Salary ≤ $2,600 + Value ≥ 2.2

Below the Grade B line at each position is a Grade C; missing both the CORE and VALUE bars is a WATCH.

For this build specifically:

COREJonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Tucker Kraft, Kyle Pitts Sr.
VALUE (leverage)Daniel Jones, Keenan Allen
WATCHMiami Dolphins DST

Six CORE, two VALUE, one WATCH — the most CORE-tier plays of any build in this series.

The Slate-IQ Take

Six CORE-tier plays is the deepest point-scoring foundation of any build in this series, but the concentration risk is real and worth being upfront about — two games now account for two-thirds of this roster. If both the Falcons-Steelers and Colts-Ravens games hit their marks, this is the build most likely to separate from a big field. If either one turns into a defensive slog, that's a lot of roster spots going quiet at once.

Final Takeaway

The Falcons-Steelers stack that gives this build its name is still fully intact, and this week's solve layered a second, unplanned Colts correlation right on top of it. Numbers don't lie — and this week they're making the same bet twice.

Data / Fact Check
  • Grade/Signal thresholds: sourced directly from the workbook's own INSTRUCTIONS tab (position-specific Assumptions blocks in each _MODEL tab) — re-verified against this solve, unchanged from prior weeks.
  • Ownership language: this model has no field-ownership projection — “leverage” and “low-owned” throughout this series is a proxy built from Grade, Signal, salary rank, and points-per-dollar, not verified ownership data.
  • Value/Projection rank context: computed directly from the workbook's own Value and Projection columns by ranking each position's full player pool — not a number the workbook displays natively, but not invented either.
  • Home/away designations: not part of the model's output; “vs.”/“@” here is generic, not a hosting claim.
  • Salary total: $49,300 of $50,000 cap — verified by direct addition, $700 unused.
  • Projection total: 161.48 — verified by direct addition of the nine projections.
  • Stack claims verified: Robinson, London, and Pitts Sr. share the ATL vs. PIT game; Jones, Taylor, and Allen share the IND vs. BAL game — confirmed against each player's Team/Opp fields, not assumed.
GPP #2 · Tournament Build

Week 1 GPP Lineup: Bengals-Buccaneers Shootout Build

A tournament build now anchored in a seven-player Bengals-Buccaneers mega-stack — the slate's highest game total (50.5) carries nearly this entire roster.

$49,000Salary Used
134.33Proj. Total
7-ManSame-Game Stack

Definition

Ceiling is Lineup 4 in the Slate-IQ four-lineup structure — the highest-ceiling, most aggressive-correlation build, willing to sacrifice floor for upside. It gets 4 of the week's 15 $1 entries, paired one-for-one with a Leverage entry into Three-Entry Max GPPs. Construction-wise it leans hardest into game stacks and volatility — more volatile WRs, lower-owned players, and often a different QB and game environment entirely from the other three builds.

Why This Lineup, Why Now

Same “highest-scoring environment on the slate” logic as always, but this week's solve took it much further than a bring-back. Seven of this lineup's nine roster spots — quarterback Baker Mayfield, running backs Chase Brown and Kenny Gainwell, receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, tight end Cade Otton, and flex Mike Gesicki — all come from the Tampa Bay-Cincinnati game, the highest total on the entire board at 50.5. That's not a bring-back anymore, it's a genuine mega-stack: three Buccaneers (Mayfield, Gainwell, Otton) and four Bengals (Chase Brown, Chase, Higgins, Gesicki) on opposite sides of the same shootout. Chris Olave and the Lions defense are the only two roster spots not tied to that one game.

The Lineup, Player by Player

QB — Baker Mayfield ($5,900, TB vs. CIN)
Grade B, VALUE signal, projected for 19.82 points — 4th in raw points among quarterbacks and 4th in value, a genuinely different QB and game environment from the other three builds in this series. Tampa Bay is a 3.5-point underdog in the slate's highest-total game (50.5), for a 23.5 implied team total.

RB — Chase Brown ($7,100, CIN @ TB)
Grade A, CORE signal, projected for 18.76 points — 3rd in raw points among running backs, 5th in value. Cincinnati is favored by 3.5 in the same 50.5-point game as Mayfield, for a 27.0 implied team total — the highest implied total anywhere in this lineup, on the opposite side of the ball from the quarterback.

RB — Kenny Gainwell ($5,200, TB vs. CIN)
Grade B, VALUE signal, projected for 16.65 points — his value score (3.202) is the best of any running back in the pool, ahead of his raw-points rank of 7th. Second Buccaneer in this build, same 23.5 implied total as Mayfield.

WR — Ja'Marr Chase ($7,800, CIN @ TB)
The most expensive player in this build, projected for 18.85 points. His value score ranks just 11th among receivers, not the best points-per-dollar in the pool, but the 27.0 implied team total justifies the price here — the same game-environment case as Chase Brown.

WR — Chris Olave ($6,700, NO vs. DET)
Grade A, CORE signal, projected for 18.58 points — 3rd in raw points among receivers, 5th in value. New Orleans is a 7-point underdog in a 49.5-point game, for a 21.25 implied team total — the one skill-position piece in this lineup not tied to the Tampa Bay-Cincinnati game, and it's also the game the Lions defense (below) sits on the other side of.

WR — Tee Higgins ($6,300, CIN @ TB)
Grade B, WATCH signal, projected for 12.99 points — 11th in raw points and 18th in value among receivers, the weakest signal of any player in this build. Same 27.0 implied team total as Chase and Chase Brown, but the model isn't giving him the same endorsement despite the shared game environment — a legitimate hedge on an otherwise stack-heavy roster.

TE — Cade Otton ($3,700, TB vs. CIN)
Grade B, VALUE signal, projected for 14.16 points — 4th in raw points and 1st in value among tight ends, the best points-per-dollar at the position in the pool. Third Buccaneer in this build.

FLEX — Mike Gesicki ($3,100, CIN @ TB)
Grade C, VALUE signal, projected for 7.4 points — the cheapest player in this lineup. His raw-points rank (18th among tight ends) is modest, but he clears the VALUE bar on price alone, and he's the fourth and final Bengal in this build's stack, same 27.0 implied total as Chase and Higgins.

DST — Detroit Lions ($3,200, DET vs. NO)
Grade B, WATCH signal, projected for 7.12 points — 4th among defenses in raw points but 7th in value, priced above the position's VALUE cutoff. Detroit is favored by 7 in a 49.5-point game — the same game as Olave, on the opposite side — for a 28.25 implied total for their own offense, the highest defensive implied total in this entire lineup.

The Full Roster

PosPlayerSalaryMatchupVegas (Total/Spread)Implied TotalProj. DKGradeSignal
QBBaker Mayfield$5,900TB vs. CIN50.5 / +3.523.519.82BVALUE
RBChase Brown$7,100CIN @ TB50.5 / -3.527.018.76ACORE
RBKenny Gainwell$5,200TB vs. CIN50.5 / +3.523.516.65BVALUE
WRJa'Marr Chase$7,800CIN @ TB50.5 / -3.527.018.85ACORE
WRChris Olave$6,700NO vs. DET49.5 / +7.021.2518.58ACORE
WRTee Higgins$6,300CIN @ TB50.5 / -3.527.012.99BWATCH
TECade Otton$3,700TB vs. CIN50.5 / +3.523.514.16BVALUE
FLEXMike Gesicki$3,100CIN @ TB50.5 / -3.527.07.40CVALUE
DSTLions$3,200DET vs. NO49.5 / -7.028.257.12BWATCH
Total$49,000134.33

Spread is shown from each listed player's own team perspective (negative = favorite). Implied team total = (Game Total − Team Spread) ÷ 2. Home/away designations aren't part of the model's output, so “vs.”/“@” here just separates team from opponent — it isn't a claim about who's hosting. $1,000 of cap space is unused.

What the Numbers Tell Us

Seven of nine roster spots in this build now come from one game — Tampa Bay at Cincinnati — which is a genuinely different construction than a bring-back. The upside case is straightforward: if that game plays out anywhere close to its 50.5 total, this lineup could produce more correlated scoring than any other build in this series. The downside is just as direct — if that one game underwhelms, seven of nine spots go quiet together, which is exactly the kind of correlated risk a Cash or Balanced build is designed to avoid and this one is designed to embrace.

This is also the lowest total projection of the four builds (134.33), the direct tradeoff for that much concentration — three CORE plays is the fewest of any lineup in this series, with Higgins in particular carrying the weakest signal of any player rostered this week.

DFS Translation

How to read Grade and Signal: Grade buckets a player's raw point projection into A/B/C tiers using position-specific point thresholds — it's salary-blind, purely “how many points is this player expected to score.” Signal layers Value (projected points per $1,000 of salary) on top of Grade to flag roster fit:

  • CORE — Grade A and Value at or above a position-specific bar. Build your lineup around this player.
  • VALUE — Salary at or below a position-specific ceiling and Value at or above a bar. A cheap, efficient pivot that frees up cap space.
  • WATCH — Neither bar was cleared. Not a red flag, just no strong edge either way.

The exact cutoffs differ by position — a WR needs fewer raw points than a QB to earn a Grade A, for example:

PositionGrade AGrade BCORE needsVALUE needs
QB≥ 20 pts≥ 16 ptsGrade A + Value ≥ 2.95Salary ≤ $6,500 + Value ≥ 2.3
RB≥ 18 pts≥ 12 ptsGrade A + Value ≥ 2.5Salary ≤ $5,800 + Value ≥ 2.3
WR≥ 16 pts≥ 11 ptsGrade A + Value ≥ 2.4Salary ≤ $5,200 + Value ≥ 2.2
TE≥ 15 pts≥ 10 ptsGrade A + Value ≥ 2.5Salary ≤ $3,700 + Value ≥ 2.5
DST≥ 7.5 pts≥ 5 ptsGrade A + Value ≥ 2.4Salary ≤ $2,600 + Value ≥ 2.2

Below the Grade B line at each position is a Grade C; missing both the CORE and VALUE bars is a WATCH.

For this build specifically:

COREChase Brown, Ja'Marr Chase, Chris Olave
VALUEBaker Mayfield, Kenny Gainwell, Cade Otton, Mike Gesicki
WATCHTee Higgins, Detroit Lions DST

Three CORE, four VALUE, two WATCH — the fewest CORE-tier plays and lowest total projection of any build in this series, a direct tradeoff for concentrating this much of the roster in one game.

The Slate-IQ Take

This is the highest-variance build in the entire four-lineup portfolio this week, by a wide margin. A seven-player same-game stack is a different animal than the two-player bring-back this post used to describe — it's a much bigger bet on one specific outcome (a Tampa Bay-Cincinnati shootout) actually happening. If it hits, this is the lineup most likely to separate in a large-field tournament. If it doesn't, there's very little this roster can fall back on — Olave and the Lions defense are the only real hedges.

Final Takeaway

What started this series as a modest bring-back is now a seven-player mega-stack anchored on the slate's highest game total. That's a much bigger swing than the name of this build originally implied, and it's worth going in with eyes open about just how concentrated this roster has become. Numbers don't lie — and this week, most of them are coming from the same game.

Data / Fact Check
  • Grade/Signal thresholds: sourced directly from the workbook's own INSTRUCTIONS tab (position-specific Assumptions blocks in each _MODEL tab) — re-verified against this solve, unchanged from prior weeks.
  • Ownership language: this model has no field-ownership projection — “leverage” and “low-owned” language throughout this series is a proxy built from Grade, Signal, salary rank, and points-per-dollar — not verified ownership data.
  • Value/Projection rank context: computed directly from the workbook's own Value and Projection columns by ranking each position's full player pool — not a number the workbook displays natively, but not invented either.
  • Home/away designations: not part of the model's output; “vs.”/“@” here is generic, not a hosting claim.
  • Salary total: $49,000 of $50,000 cap — verified by direct addition, $1,000 unused.
  • Projection total: 134.33 — verified by direct addition of the nine projections.
  • Stack claim verified: Mayfield, Gainwell, and Otton (Tampa Bay) and Chase Brown, Chase, Higgins, and Gesicki (Cincinnati) all share the same TB vs. CIN game per each player's Team/Opp fields — 7 of 9 roster spots, not a bring-back — and Olave/Lions were separately confirmed to be on opposite sides of the NO @ DET game.
GPP #3 · Tournament Build

Week 1 GPP Lineup: The Colts Stack

A tournament build anchored by a genuine QB-WR correlation piece out of Indianapolis, with four Bengals-Buccaneers shootout pieces layered on top for extra ceiling.

$49,300Salary Used
143.65Proj. Total
2Correlated Games

Definition

Balanced is Lineup 2 in the Slate-IQ four-lineup structure — the hybrid build, still projection-driven but with some correlation and a few lower-owned pivots. It gets 3 of the week's 15 $1 entries, going into Single-Entry-Only GPPs, a format built for exactly one well-considered lineup rather than volume. Construction-wise it stays close to Cash: the same primary QB (or the secondary one), with just 1–2 player swaps for higher-upside, lower-owned pieces — moderate leverage and some correlation, not a full stack.

Why This Lineup, Why Now

Balanced sits between Cash and the two more aggressive GPP builds in this series — this week's optimizer solve leaned into that by pairing quarterback Daniel Jones with his own top receiver, Keenan Allen, giving this build a genuine same-team correlation piece for the first time this week rather than nine standalone names. On top of that intentional stack, four more roster spots — Chase Brown, Bucky Irving, Ja'Marr Chase, and Kenny Gainwell — all land in the same Tampa Bay-Cincinnati game, the highest-total matchup on the board (50.5). That overlap wasn't specifically engineered the way the Colts stack was, but it means this build now carries real correlated upside in two different games rather than the single-game, straight-projection approach a Balanced build usually takes.

The Lineup, Player by Player

QB — Daniel Jones ($5,400, IND vs. BAL)
Grade B, VALUE signal. His value score (3.548) is the single best of any quarterback in the pool, even though his raw-points rank is only 6th, projected for 19.16 points. Indianapolis is a 3.5-point underdog in a 48.5-point game, for a 22.5 implied team total. He anchors this build's one deliberate correlation piece, paired below with his own WR3.

RB — Chase Brown ($7,100, CIN @ TB)
Grade A, CORE signal, projected for 18.76 points — 3rd in raw points among running backs, 5th in value. Cincinnati is favored by 3.5 in the slate's highest-total game (50.5), for a 27.0 implied team total, the best implied total of any player in this lineup. One of four pieces in this build tied to the Tampa Bay-Cincinnati shootout.

RB — Bucky Irving ($5,700, TB vs. CIN)
Grade A, CORE signal, projected for 18.22 points — 4th in raw points, 2nd in value among running backs. Tampa Bay is a 3.5-point underdog in the same 50.5-point game as Chase Brown, for a 23.5 implied team total — the opposite side of the same shootout.

WR — Ja'Marr Chase ($7,800, CIN @ TB)
The most expensive player in this build, projected for 18.85 points. His value score ranks just 11th among receivers — not the best points-per-dollar in the pool — but the 27.0 implied team total (tied for the best in this lineup) is doing a lot of the work here. Third piece in the Tampa Bay-Cincinnati game.

WR — Tetairoa McMillan ($6,100, CAR vs. CHI)
Grade A, CORE signal, projected for 16.4 points, with his raw-points rank and value rank both landing at 6th among wide receivers — a balanced profile that isn't tied to either same-game cluster in this lineup. Carolina is a 2.5-point underdog in a 47.5-point game, for a 22.5 implied team total.

WR — Keenan Allen ($4,700, IND vs. BAL)
Grade B, VALUE signal, projected for 13.31 points — 9th in raw points among receivers but 4th in value. Same game as Jones (48.5 total, 22.5 implied for Indianapolis) — this is the correlation half of the Colts stack, a quarterback paired with his own receiver rather than a standalone piece.

TE — Tucker Kraft ($4,500, GB vs. MIN)
Grade A, CORE signal, projected for 15.09 points — 3rd in raw points and 2nd in value among tight ends, a CORE tag that's also efficiently priced. Green Bay is favored by 1.5 in a 45.5-point game, for a 22.0 implied team total — a game with no other pieces rostered in this build.

FLEX — Kenny Gainwell ($5,200, TB vs. CIN)
Grade B, VALUE signal, projected for 16.65 points — his value score (3.202) is the best of any running back in the pool, ahead of his raw-points rank of 7th. Fourth and final piece of the Tampa Bay-Cincinnati game in this build, giving that one matchup four total roster spots.

DST — Chicago Bears ($2,800, CHI vs. CAR)
Grade B, WATCH signal, projected for 7.21 points — 3rd among defenses in raw points, priced $200 over the position's VALUE cutoff. Chicago is favored by 2.5 in a 47.5-point game, for a 25.0 implied total for their own offense.

The Full Roster

PosPlayerSalaryMatchupVegas (Total/Spread)Implied TotalProj. DKGradeSignal
QBDaniel Jones$5,400IND vs. BAL48.5 / +3.522.519.16BVALUE
RBChase Brown$7,100CIN @ TB50.5 / -3.527.018.76ACORE
RBBucky Irving$5,700TB vs. CIN50.5 / +3.523.518.22ACORE
WRJa'Marr Chase$7,800CIN @ TB50.5 / -3.527.018.85ACORE
WRTetairoa McMillan$6,100CAR vs. CHI47.5 / +2.522.516.40ACORE
WRKeenan Allen$4,700IND vs. BAL48.5 / +3.522.513.31BVALUE
TETucker Kraft$4,500GB vs. MIN45.5 / +1.522.015.09ACORE
FLEXKenny Gainwell$5,200TB vs. CIN50.5 / +3.523.516.65BVALUE
DSTBears$2,800CHI vs. CAR47.5 / -2.525.07.21BWATCH
Total$49,300143.65

Spread is shown from each listed player's own team perspective (negative = favorite). Implied team total = (Game Total − Team Spread) ÷ 2. Home/away designations aren't part of the model's output, so “vs.” here just separates team from opponent — it isn't a claim about who's hosting. $700 of cap space is unused.

What the Numbers Tell Us

Four of nine roster spots here — Chase Brown, Irving, Chase, and Gainwell — come from the same Tampa Bay-Cincinnati game, which is worth being honest about: that's real concentration risk for a build whose job in this series is usually to differ from the more aggressive stacks. The deliberate correlation piece — Jones and Allen out of Indianapolis — is smaller by comparison, just two roster spots, but it's the one piece of this build that's actually engineered rather than incidental.

Chase Brown and Ja'Marr Chase both carry the highest implied team total on the board (27.0), a real strength if that game plays out the way Vegas expects — but it's also the same game this build is leaning on four times over.

DFS Translation

How to read Grade and Signal: Grade buckets a player's raw point projection into A/B/C tiers using position-specific point thresholds — it's salary-blind, purely “how many points is this player expected to score.” Signal layers Value (projected points per $1,000 of salary) on top of Grade to flag roster fit:

  • CORE — Grade A and Value at or above a position-specific bar. Build your lineup around this player.
  • VALUE — Salary at or below a position-specific ceiling and Value at or above a bar. A cheap, efficient pivot that frees up cap space.
  • WATCH — Neither bar was cleared. Not a red flag, just no strong edge either way.

The exact cutoffs differ by position — a WR needs fewer raw points than a QB to earn a Grade A, for example:

PositionGrade AGrade BCORE needsVALUE needs
QB≥ 20 pts≥ 16 ptsGrade A + Value ≥ 2.95Salary ≤ $6,500 + Value ≥ 2.3
RB≥ 18 pts≥ 12 ptsGrade A + Value ≥ 2.5Salary ≤ $5,800 + Value ≥ 2.3
WR≥ 16 pts≥ 11 ptsGrade A + Value ≥ 2.4Salary ≤ $5,200 + Value ≥ 2.2
TE≥ 15 pts≥ 10 ptsGrade A + Value ≥ 2.5Salary ≤ $3,700 + Value ≥ 2.5
DST≥ 7.5 pts≥ 5 ptsGrade A + Value ≥ 2.4Salary ≤ $2,600 + Value ≥ 2.2

Below the Grade B line at each position is a Grade C; missing both the CORE and VALUE bars is a WATCH.

For this build specifically:

COREChase Brown, Bucky Irving, Ja'Marr Chase, Tetairoa McMillan, Tucker Kraft
VALUEDaniel Jones, Keenan Allen, Kenny Gainwell
WATCHChicago Bears DST

Five CORE, three VALUE, one WATCH — a solid point-scoring foundation, though the concentration in one game is a real caveat for a build whose job is usually to differentiate.

The Slate-IQ Take

Worth saying plainly: this build no longer does the job “Balanced” usually does in this series. The point of this lineup is normally to differ meaningfully from the other GPP builds so a multi-lineup portfolio isn't just betting the same game three different ways — but four of nine spots here now share a game with the Ceiling build's own stack. If you're entering all three GPP lineups this week, that overlap is worth knowing about before locking this one in alongside the Bengals-Buccaneers build. Taken on its own, though, it's a stronger lineup than the version it replaces — five CORE plays and a real QB-WR correlation piece in Jones and Allen.

Final Takeaway

The Colts stack — Jones paired with his own WR3, Keenan Allen — is this build's one true differentiator; the four Tampa Bay-Cincinnati pieces riding alongside it add ceiling but also add overlap with the Ceiling lineup elsewhere in this series. Numbers don't lie, but this week they're pointing at the same game more than once.

Data / Fact Check
  • Grade/Signal thresholds: sourced directly from the workbook's own INSTRUCTIONS tab (position-specific Assumptions blocks in each _MODEL tab) — re-verified against this solve, unchanged from prior weeks.
  • Ownership language: this model has no field-ownership projection. “Leverage” and “low-owned” language throughout this series is a proxy built from Grade, Signal, salary rank, and points-per-dollar — not verified ownership data.
  • Value/Projection rank context: computed directly from the workbook's own Value and Projection columns by ranking each position's full player pool — not a number the workbook displays natively, but not invented either.
  • Home/away designations: not in the model's output; “vs.”/“@” here is generic, not a hosting claim.
  • Salary total: $49,300 of $50,000 cap — verified by direct addition, $700 unused.
  • Projection total: 143.65 — verified by direct addition of the nine projections.
  • Stack claims verified: Jones and Allen share the IND vs. BAL game; Chase Brown, Irving, Chase, and Gainwell share the CIN @ TB game — confirmed against each player's Team/Opp fields, not assumed.